\n<\/p>\n
Y\u0131llard\u0131r baz\u0131 uzmanlar, yapay zeka end\u00fcstrisinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir balon haline geldi\u011fini ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 beklentiyle \u015fi\u015fen bu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn sonunda patlayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Son g\u00fcnlerde bu uyar\u0131lar daha da y\u00fcksek sesle dile getiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Apollo Global Management\u2019\u0131n ba\u015f ekonomisti Torsten Slok, \u015firketin blogunda kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaz\u0131da yapay zeka sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki mevcut balonun, 1990\u2019lar\u0131n sonundaki dot-com krizinden bile daha tehlikeli bir hal ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu.<\/p>\n
Slok, \u201c1990\u2019lardaki balonla bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yapay zeka balonu aras\u0131ndaki fark, S&P 500\u2019deki en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 \u015firketin bug\u00fcn \u00e7ok daha a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmi\u015f olmas\u0131\u201d diye yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dot-com balonu, 1990\u2019lar\u0131n sonu ile 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan ve internet \u015firketlerinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesi sonucu olu\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir finansal spek\u00fclasyon ve piyasa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyd\u00fc. Balonun ad\u0131, o d\u00f6nemde kurulan internet \u015firketlerinin \u00e7o\u011funun \u201c.com\u201d uzant\u0131l\u0131 alan adlar\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131ndan geliyor.<\/p>\n
1995\u20132000 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar internet teknolojilerinin potansiyeline fazlas\u0131yla g\u00fcvenerek bu sekt\u00f6rdeki \u015firketlere a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimserlikle yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Yeni kurulan internet \u015firketleri, kar etmelerine bile gerek kalmadan milyarlarca dolar yat\u0131r\u0131m al\u0131rken, \u015firketler sadece \u201c.com\u201d ismiyle halka arz edilip devasa piyasa de\u011ferlerine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Medya ve analistler de iyimser s\u00f6ylemleriyle bu trendi daha da k\u00f6r\u00fcklemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bir\u00e7ok dot-com \u015firketi harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 gelirlerinden \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor, zarar ettik\u00e7e daha fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m al\u0131yordu. \u015eirketlerin vaat ettikleri k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flayamad\u0131klar\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar hisseleri h\u0131zla satmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sonunda ABD teknoloji borsas\u0131 NASDAQ, Mart 2000\u2019de zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde de\u011ferinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 80\u2019ini kaybetti. Y\u00fcz milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m buharla\u015f\u0131rken, 2000-2002 d\u00f6neminde ekonomik durgunluk ya\u015fand\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u015firket piyasadan silinirken<\/p>\n
Amazon gibi \u015firketlerin de\u011feri de h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ama bunlar daha sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te ayakta kalmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Slok\u2019un yapay zeka \u015firketleriyle ilgili analizine g\u00f6re ise S&P 500 endeksinde en iyi performans g\u00f6steren 10 \u015firketin fiyat\/kazan\u00e7 (F\/K) oranlar\u0131, 1990\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llardaki seviyelerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu oran, bir \u015firketin hisse fiyat\u0131n\u0131n kazanc\u0131na oranla ne kadar y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Yani \u015firketlerin piyasa de\u011feri h\u0131zla artarken, gelirleri ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu duruma \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck edenler aras\u0131nda yapay zeka \u00e7ipleri \u00fcretien Nvidia, ard\u0131ndan Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta ve Alphabet (Google\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131 \u015firketi) yer al\u0131yor. Bu devler, milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k yapay zeka yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yaparak endekste a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Ancak analistler, bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n halen k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini, hatta baz\u0131 teknoloji devlerinin harcamalar\u0131 k\u0131smaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc harcamalar ve gelirler aras\u0131ndaki makas giderek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Slok\u2019un bu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, asl\u0131nda yeni bir uyar\u0131 de\u011fil. Daha ChatGPT\u2019nin ilk aylar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2023\u2019te bile bir\u00e7ok analist \u201ckan\u0131tlanmam\u0131\u015f teknolojilere a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u201d yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Futurism\u2019e konu\u015fan yapay zeka analisti Ed Zitron, durumu 2007\u2019deki subprime mortgage (ipotek) krizine benzetiyor. O kriz, ABD konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6kertmi\u015f ve k\u00fcresel ekonomik krize yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda, \u00c7inli yapay zek\u00e2 \u015firketi DeepSeek, \u00e7ok daha az donan\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcyle e\u011fitilmi\u015f ve ChatGPT gibi modellerle yar\u0131\u015fabilen bir sohbet botu tan\u0131t\u0131nca, teknoloji hisselerinde 1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu olay, yapay zeka piyasas\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne sermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
ChatGPT ve Google Gemini gibi ara\u00e7lar d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda pop\u00fclerlik kazanm\u0131\u015f olsa da, elde edilen gelirler h\u00e2l\u00e2 veri merkezlerine yat\u0131r\u0131lan onlarca milyar dolar\u0131n \u00e7ok gerisinde.<\/p>\n
Haziran ay\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan S&P Global ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u00fcretken yapay zeka pazar\u0131n\u0131n 2029\u2019a kadar toplamda 85 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir hacme ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknoloji<\/a> devlerinin yapay zekaya yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 devasa yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 alabilecekleri ise hen\u00fcz kan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015f bir olgu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n